Preparing 5 – Years Plan for Accepting Students in Administration and Economics College / University of Baghdad by Using  (Box - Jenkins) Methodology

	Preparing 5 – Years Plan for Accepting Students in Administration and Economics College / University of Baghdad by Using (Box - Jenkins) Methodology
journal of Economics And Administrative Sciences/ University of baghdad
Article 1, Volume 23, Issue 97, 2017, Pages 473-492
Abstract
One of the most important successful factors in any institution (whether educational or others) is the strategic planning based on scientific basis , integrating virtual systems away from guesswork and intuition . The main problem of this research is diagnosed by : the existence of disparity between numbers of really accepted students and the planned numbers in every academic year at the college of Administration and Economics – University of Baghdad . Oftenly , the numbers of really accepted students were more than the planned ones , this in turn leads to inability to develop the absorptive capacity of the college commensurate with the increasing numbers of really accepted students . This research aims to prepare a five – years plan of accepting under graduate students in the mentioned college by using (Box – Jenkins) methodology in time series analysis which is still considered as a modern method adopted in many currently studies . The time series of the really accepted students numbers in under graduate studies for previous academic years (from 1990/1991 to 2014/2015) were collected and analyzed for this reason . The research concluded that ARIMA (3,1,0) model is the only model appropriate and good fit the time series whereas its parameters were mostly significant and accurate . Therefore the research recommended to adopt it in the future plans.
Keywords
Box; Time series analysis; ARIMA models; ARIMA

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