Measuring and Analyzing the Relationship between International Trade liberalization and Economic Growth in Iraq for the period (2003-2014) By Using (ARDL) Model

	Measuring and Analyzing the Relationship between International Trade liberalization and Economic Growth in Iraq for the period (2003-2014) By Using (ARDL) Model
Al Kut Journal of Economics Administrative Sciences
Article 1, Volume 0, Issue 26, 2018, Pages 84-104
Abstract
Abstract: With the advent of trade liberalization in recent decades , the hypothesis has drawn wide spread (Export - Led Growth) the attention of explain it and its economic performance, Rate of GDP growth (GDP), exports and imports in Iraq has reached during the period under consideration (2014 - 2003), 14.2%, 18.5%, 27.7%, respectively. This research aims to measure and analyze the relationship between The liberalization of international trade and economic growth in Iraq. The period (2003 – 2014) using ARDL model , This research is derived from a main – hypothesis adopted in this paper is that economic growth in Iraq will benefit from the exports and imports , To achieve this hypothesis ,Annual data is converted to quarterly data; as well as the use of augmented Dickey - Fuller Test , applying ARDL model and tests for the second order tests , applying and error correction model (ECM) , in addition to The Test for Granger causality. The research concluded that there is a long – run equilibrium relationship between GDP and exports and Imports, We also can see a quick response in the GDP when exports and Imports are changing. It also shows that exports have the largest proportion; And exports account for the largest Proportion , The estimated Model Reflects A very high level of quality assessment; This also illustrate the value of the coefficient of determination amounting to (%92) , as well as the fact that the estimated model does not suffer from the problem of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity , as well as parameters stability as reflected in CUSUM test. The assessment results refered that a(%10) change in exports on the long – run will lead to a(%3.42) change in GDP , ceteris paribus . It also refered that a(%10) change in imports will leads to a decreas in GDP by (%-0.08) , ceteris paribus and this is insignificant because P-value is more than more (%5). This is emphasize by the hypothesis states that “export – lead – growth”.

Statistics Article View: 48 PDF Download: 22