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FORECASTING OF (DEAD AND NON DEAD, DEATHS AND INJURIES) FOR TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN IRAQ USING AN OPTIMAL STATISTICAL MODELS | ||
| Journal of Engineering and Sustainable Development | ||
| Article 1, Volume 21, Issue 3, 2017, Pages 167-173 | ||
| Author | ||
| Nahla Hafidh Jawad | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Objective: This research aimed to forecasting of an expected outcomes for the planning periods (2014-2026) based on the numbers of traffic accidents, as well as projection long term trend graphically for (Dead and non dead accidents, numbers of deaths, and numbers of injuries), in Iraq throughout applying an optimal statistical models. Methodology: Data are selected from annuls statistical reports of traffic accidents registered and published by Ministry of Planning for the time periods (2002-2013). Five criteria had been applied, such that (MSE, MAE, MAPE, ME, and MPE), the first three statistics measuring the magnitude of the errors. A better model will give a smaller value. The last two statistics measure bias. A better model will give a value close to zero. Results and Findings: Several forecasting models are suggested, and among that are nominated (Linear trend, Brown’s Linear Exponential Smoothing, and Moving Average of order (1) i.e. MA(1)), since recorded significant autoregressive, and goodness of fit tests. Conclusions: For the three time series, (Dead accidents, no. of deaths, and no. of injuries), it will be increases significantly at the projection of planning periods, while time series, concerning (Non Dead accidents) according to the magnitude of residuals by applying studied indicators, shows stability status along the projection periods at the general mean line. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Traffic accidents; Forecasting Methods; Linear; Goodness of Fit; Future Projection | ||
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