FORECASTING OF WHEAT PRODUCTION IN IRAQ USING BOX- JENKINS MODEL FOR PERIOD 2020-2024

Al-Moola, A. R. H.

doi:10.32649/ajas.2020.170516

	FORECASTING OF WHEAT PRODUCTION IN IRAQ USING BOX- JENKINS MODEL FOR PERIOD 2020-2024
Anbar Journal of Agricultural Sciences
Article 10, Volume 18, Issue 1, 2020, Pages 109-118 PDF (1.46 M)
Document Type: Research Paper
DOI: 10.32649/ajas.2020.170516
Author
A. R. H. Al-Moola
Abstract
Wheat is a major crop of food grown in different parts of Iraq, whether irrigated in the middle or south or demilitarized in northern Iraq, which is grown in large quantities but does not meet the actual need for local consumption, and as a strategic commodity, this research aims to make a forecast of wheat production for the next five years 2020-2024, by using time series based on the Box-Jenkins model. This is one of the models that depend on the accuracy of diagnosis of the phenomenon studied by relying on time series data for the study period 1980 - 2018, where a set of results were obtained through the use of statistical analysis program Minitab17 that may help those interested in the future vision of the Iraqi economy in drawing A successful planning policy, the results showed that the best model for forecasting wheat production in Iraq is ARIMA (1.0.2).
Keywords
Predicting production; Wheat Production; Box- Jenkins Model; Time Series

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