Evaluation to Some Aspects Causing the Crisis of Water Scarcity in Iraq

Al Bayaty, Majd A.

doi:10.33899/earth.2024.147823.1248

	Evaluation to Some Aspects Causing the Crisis of Water Scarcity in Iraq
Iraqi National Journal of Earth Science (INJES)
Article 27, Volume 25, Issue 2 - Serial Number 1, April 2025, Pages 349-364 PDF (721.47 K)
Document Type: Research Paper
DOI: 10.33899/earth.2024.147823.1248
Author
Majd A. Al Bayaty^*
Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Babylon, Babylon 51001, Iraq
Abstract
Water as one of the natural resources plays a key role in shaping most components of the life; it’s required more attention as an important resource in most countries in the world. Iraq’s rivers have affected by the construction of dams and climate change, and this impaction may be expected to increase cumulatively. Therefore, the aim of this research is identifying and evaluation to essential aspects that caused the water scarcity crisis in Iraq, specialty Euphrates River basin as one of the vital rivers in Iraq. The area is selected to study is situated around main stream of Euphrates River start from Al Hindiyah Barrage until Al kifil town which considered as one of the most important regions that Euphrates River passes through. The monthly climatologically data was collected from GCMSM. A statistical analysis is used for analyzing the homogeneity of hydro-climate data and test the significant change- points to evaluate trends over time period. The evaluation is based on two sections; the first one deals with how climatic change as a natural property can affect water flow. Secondly; identify the impact of hydrological factor on fluctuation water intake through statistical analysis of data such as used Mann-Whitney with hypothesis testing the Null Hypothesis H0 and the Alternative Hypothesis H1 for the period before construction and after construction dams to recent year .The results are indicated that the arid continental climate of Iraq was conferred a fluctuation in rivers’ discharges and the occurrence of consecutive dry years have allow for more fluctuation in some hydrological characteristics to the river regime. The climate change has caused a continuous rise in temperature with rate of 1-10 C ° annually and the effect of this rise has appeared since 1999.The amount of rainfall has also decreased sharply and at a noticeable way with peak decline in year 2000 in a time the rain occupies a first place in amount of recharge in Iraqi rivers at ratio of 42-49 % from total other recharge sources. Also from results, a direct correlation is appeared between rainfall and water consumption, as well as an inverse correlation with the temperature. The river’s sources countries can increase the risk of this change and the impact of climate change will be clear in future years due to its cumulative effect.
Keywords
Euphrates River; Water Crisis; Iraq Climate; Mann-Whitney index; Aridity index; Iraq topography

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