Impact of Oil Prices Fluctuations on Unemployment Rates in OPEC Plus Countries: Evidence from 1991 to 2022

عثمان, أرشد طه عثمان

doi:10.34009/aujeas.2026.161372.1146

	Impact of Oil Prices Fluctuations on Unemployment Rates in OPEC Plus Countries: Evidence from 1991 to 2022
مجلة جامعة الانبار للعلوم الاقتصادیة والاداریة
Volume 17, Issue 4, December 2025, Pages 87-102 PDF (449.42 K)
Document Type: بحث
DOI: 10.34009/aujeas.2026.161372.1146
Author
أرشد طه عثمان عثمان^*
برلمان كوردستان العراق
Abstract
This research examines the relationship between oil price fluctuations and unemployment rates in OPEC+ countries over the period 1991 to 2022. The analysis utilizes a panel data regression framework, applying a Fixed Effects (FE) model with robust standard errors to control country-specific heterogeneity and address issues of heteroscedasticity. Key macroeconomic variables, namely inflation and interest rates, are included as controls to isolate the direct effect of oil price movements on unemployment. The empirical results reveal a statistically significant and negative relationship between oil prices and unemployment rates, indicating that rising oil prices are associated with reductions in unemployment. This pattern holds across most OPEC+ countries, regardless of their degree of oil dependence or economic structure. Diagnostic tests, including the Hausman test, Breusch-Pagan test, and a Durbin-Watson approximation, confirm the appropriateness and robustness of the model. These findings underscore the crucial role of oil market dynamics in shaping labor market outcomes and underscore the need for robust policy frameworks to mitigate the risks associated with oil price volatility.
Keywords
Keywords: Unemployment; OPEC+ Countries; Panel Data; Fixed Effects Model; Robust Estimation

References

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