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IMPACT OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS ON IRAQ'S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR FOR 2004-2023 | ||
| Mesopotamia Journal of Agriculture | ||
| Article 3, Volume 54, Issue 1, March 2026, Pages 28-45 PDF (635.08 K) | ||
| Document Type: Research | ||
| DOI: 10.33899/mja.2025.157262.1535 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Ammar Faisal Mahmood* 1; Waleed I. Sultan2 | ||
| 1Department of Petroleum Reservoir Engineering, College of Petroleum and Mining Engineering, University of Mosul, Mosul, Iraq | ||
| 2Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Mosul, Mosul, Iraq | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The study aims to assess the impact of aggregate economic shocks on the Iraqi economy as a whole, and on the agricultural sector in particular, by examining the effects of selected macroeconomic variables on GDP and subsequently on agricultural output. This is achieved through the use of the two-stage least squares (2SLS) method. The results of the long-term relationship estimation indicate that all economic variables included in the study have statistically significant effects on GDP through co-integration. Among these, certain variables exhibit a more pronounced influence, as revealed by the impulse response analysis, which shows that their effects persist over an extended period, Specifically, the impact of oil prices becomes evident in the third year, taxes in the second year, the exchange rate in the third year, inflation in the second year, and the tax rate in the fourth year. These findings demonstrate that macroeconomic shocks significantly affect GDP, and the responses of GDP to these macro variables are positively and statistically significant. Based on these outcomes, the study recommends greater attention to international economic changes that influence the agricultural sector. It also advocates for the development of appropriate agricultural policies and the adoption of scientific. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Keywords: Agricultural output; economic shocks; oil prices; gross domestic product (GDP) | ||
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