The impact of the US shale oil revolution on OPEC's share in the oil market for the period (2000-2024)

Ahmad, Jamal Mohmad; Al-Abbadi, Ammar

doi:10.69513/jdifas.v2.i2.a5

	The impact of the US shale oil revolution on OPEC's share in the oil market for the period (2000-2024)
Journal of Digital Innovation in Financial and Administrative Studies (JDIFAS)
Volume 2, Issue 2, July 2026, Pages 59-71 PDF (841.73 K)
Document Type: Original Article
DOI: 10.69513/jdifas.v2.i2.a5
Authors
Jamal Mohmad Ahmad^* ¹; Ammar Al-Abbadi²
¹Accounting Techniques-Administrative Technical College- Al - Noor University - mousl-iraq
²Al - Furqan University - mousl - iraq
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the impact of shale oil production development on OPEC’s share of global oil production during the period 2000–2024, in light of the structural transformations witnessed in the global oil market. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) to examine the relationship between OPEC’s market share and a set of explanatory variables, including oil prices, global oil demand, renewable energy, and shale oil share in global production. The findings revealed the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The results also indicated that global demand supports OPEC’s market share, whereas the expansion of shale oil production and renewable energy poses an increasing competitive challenge to OPEC’s position in the global oil market. The study concluded that shale oil has become a structural factor influencing the balance of global oil supply, requiring OPEC to adopt more flexible production policies to maintain its market share.
Keywords
ARDL Model; Global Oil Market; Global Oil Demand; OPEC; Shale Oil

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