Using some mathematical models to forecast the numbers of first grade primary students in Basra Governorate

Sami Yaseen, Zainab; Mohammed Naeem, Sanaa; Qasim Mohsin, Shaymaa

doi:10.33916/qjae.2026.02339355

	Using some mathematical models to forecast the numbers of first grade primary students in Basra Governorate
AL-Qadisiyah Journal For Administrative and Economic sciences
Volume 28, Issue 2, July 2026, Pages 339-355 PDF (1.45 M)
Document Type: Research Paper
DOI: 10.33916/qjae.2026.02339355
Authors
zainab sami Yaseen¹; Sanaa Mohammed Naeem²; Shaymaa Qasim Mohsin³
¹Southern technical university / medical technical institute of Basrah
²Southern technical university/college of health& medical techniqnes in basrah
³University of Basra/college of Administration Southern technical university / technical institute of Basrah
Abstract
The research dealt with one of the most important topics in the statistical and educational aspect, which is predicting the numbers of first-grade students, as it is important for educational, political and urban institutions, using different predictive models (Box-Jenkins models of the first order and exponential models) with the aim of conducting the forecasting process for those numbers and comparing these models using the mean absolute percentile error (MAPE) standard and selecting the best model in light of these indicators that differ from each other.tire study without repeating the introduction or including unnecessary background information.
Keywords
Forecasting; Box-Jenkins models; Autoregressive; Moving average; ARMA

Statistics Article View: 45 PDF Download: 60