Using Markov chain for predict the index number for the prices in Iraq

	Using Markov chain for predict the index number for the prices in Iraq
Diyala Journal For Pure Science
Article 1, Volume 6, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 388-405
Abstract
The indices of consumer prices is one of the oldest economic indicators and the most widespread, as they measure the net changes that occur on the prices of consumer goods and services purchased by a class of consumers during a specific time period, therefore, studying their impact on the economic situation has a great importance because of its direct relation to economic development and prosperity social. Also them prediction allows the officials authorities to develop the economy and avoid the national economic crises that are harmful to economic development. The aim of this study is to predict the direction indices of consumer prices of commodities (food - Textiles, clothing and footwear - fuel and lighting - Transport and transportation - medicines and medical services - rent) using Markov chains as one of the statistical methods to predict the data at the present time, the matrix of possible transition was estimated by using the method of “the greatest possible” which was applied to monthly data taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Information Technology in Iraq for the period (01/04 / 2003) to (02/01/2009) because this period represents a period of change of Iraq's political, social and economic... The results of the prediction find that all the indices of consumer prices for commodities will see a remarkable increase and then decrease (except for the rental rates which will stabilize later) in reference to the arrival of the global financial crisis to Iraq in the future.
Keywords
Markov chains; Economic; Prediction; Transition Probabilities; economic cries; economic indicators

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