THE COMPARISON BETWEEN FORECASTING METHODS WITH DEMAND ON RICE IN IRAQ FOR THE PERIOD (2001-2020)

.D. Kassar, Ali

	THE COMPARISON BETWEEN FORECASTING METHODS WITH DEMAND ON RICE IN IRAQ FOR THE PERIOD (2001-2020)
The Iraqi Journal of Agricultural Science
Article 1, Volume 39, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 74-88
Author
Ali .D. Kassar
Abstract
The objective of this research was to compare forecasting methods with demand on rice in Iraq for the period (2001-2020) using time series data of quantity available for rice consumption in Iraq for the period (1961-2000). Various methods of prediction were used represented by least squares method , simple and double exponential smoothing methods , and moving averages in addition to (B&J) procedures. The comparison has been done between these methods according to mean squares error(MSE)criteria with preferable to the model which attain less value of that criteria, and also less value of Automatic information criteria (AIC) in comparing between (ARIMA) models. The results showed that (ARIMA) models succeeded to have less value for (MSE) criteria comparing with other models. The rank of (ARIMA) model was (1,1,1) which considered to be the best model in less value of (MSE) or (AIC) comparing with other (ARIMA) models. Also, the model which has been chosen exceeded the required statistical tests. The results recommended to the importance of studying all rice crop aspects starting from cultivation through production up to marketing taking into account the issues of rice crop production in order to know its development factors and production obstacles with importance of cooperation between economists, technicians and statisticians to present the right decisions for economic policy makers to agricultural crops in general and rice crop in particular. This can not be done without efforts of various government and non government organizations to support the right and reliable data and information in order to find out an accurate estimation. Finally, studying foreign policy related to exports and imports for crops reflects domestic requirements from foodstuff in order to reduce the burden on general budget of the country.

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