Forecasting number of students admitted in the College Medicine / University of Karbala for the period from 2012 to 2016

	Forecasting number of students admitted in the College Medicine / University of Karbala for the period from 2012 to 2016
journal of kerbala university
Article 1, Volume 8, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 27-36 PDF (0 K)
Abstract
To estimate the number of students and determine the requirements of the study (in total) through the numbers to predict the future and at the lowest possible error will give an accurate perception of the movement of growth and development of the college, which will lead to the establishment of development plans in the near term solid Outlaid. By calculating estimates of the number of students admitted to the (College of Medicine / University of Karbala) from 2004 to 2011 and compared with the actual numbers in order to choose the best way to predict for the coming years of 2012_2016 lowest possible error in the estimate of the regression models of linear and non-linear, which included the following methods: linear regression . exponential regression, power function, logarithmic regression , logistic regression , inverse function , Form Quadratic Equation , Cubic model equation , curve S. Adopted as the data of students enrolled in the College Medicine of the previous years (2004_2005_2006_2007_2007_2008_2009_2010_2011). were obtained from the Registration Department / in the College Medicine / University of Karbala. Accordingly, the research found that the S curve model was more successful in predicting the number of students from the rest of the other models because the value of Coefficient of determination R2 has the highest value was reached (70%) and the value of F has become the highest value and the level of significance (.010). And (mean squares error) has reached a minimum value (0.019) compared to models with the rest.

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