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Comparison between exponential Smoothing model and Intervention method on international prices of barley | ||
| Tikrit Journal of Pure Science | ||
| Article 1, Volume 18, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 255-262 | ||
| Author | ||
| Alla Abdulsattar Hamooodat | ||
| Abstract | ||
| In this research we made a comparison between exponential Smoothing and Intervention method in the selection of the best model of the time series, the annual data on international prices of cereals (barley) for the period (1961-2002), has been used the method of exponential bilateral Double Exponential Smoothing to choose the appropriate model at ( ), and was used Intervention method series data and determining the order of models through (ACF) (PACF), and criteria for prediction (MSE, MAD) to a typical boot exponential and the impact of overlap were selected the best model of the series and show that Intervention method was efficient than the Double Exponential Smoothing prediction of the time series. | ||
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