Using some aspects of the Theory of Probability in weather forecasting and climate studies

Raouf Sheer Mohammed, Taha

	Using some aspects of the Theory of Probability in weather forecasting and climate studies
مجلة آداب البصرة
Article 10, Volume 9, Issue 67, 2013, Pages 241-262 PDF (0 K)
Author
Taha Raouf Sheer Mohammed
Abstract
The World Weather Research Program (WWRP), -which follows The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) – is performing a leading role in addressing the challenges facing the forecasting processes for different periods. It focuses on weather phenomena that have significant impacts on the society, the economy and the environment. The efforts of the program (WWRP) covers time scales ranging from hours to weeks and even months in some cases. The biggest activity of the program (WWRP) is in the experience of research for the control and monitoring systems predictability (The Observing System Predictability Experiment = THORPEX), which aims to: accelerate the improvement of the accuracy of weather forecasts of high-impact from one day to two weeks, and improving the use of those predictions. The THORPEX has established in turn a regulatory framework for institution interested in liturgical research and address the problems of prediction. There is an international cooperation between academic institutions and centers of prediction (Operational forecast centers) and the users of the results of forecasts to accelerate addressing this process. The probability theory is using as a supplementary process to the physics laws in weather forecasting, and in order to determine climate changes in the future. Within a complex method, a combination is done between natural and statistical laws. The technique that came into existence is known as “similarity technique", which requires a series of previous weather maps to see how accelerated the movement of some major weather phenomena and their destinations. The idea can be summarized as of trying to investigate the possibility of detecting the state of symmetry between the entire vocabulary and data liturgical situation prevailing in every day with the past. This requires finding a case of similarity between what is happening on the Earth's surface compared with the upper layers of the atmosphere. This is done through the study of the rate of movement of air in the middle troposphere at (500 millibars); jet stream, which resides in barotraumas level (300) hectopascals (hPa). In the case of detecting the presence of such a state of symmetry or compliance, it is unlikely - according to the “Theory of Probability” - to be repeated past weather situations in the future. However, this theory becomes the only way can be used by the experts when it comes to trying to predict for the whole season, so it is impossible to rely on the “The Dynamic Method” within the current scientific capabilities.
Keywords
Using some aspects of the Theory of Probability; in weather forecasting; and climate studies

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