Using Models Box-Jenkins for forecasting the quantities  of solar radiation in Iraq (1971-1995) Applied Computerized Study

	Using Models Box-Jenkins for forecasting the quantities of solar radiation in Iraq (1971-1995) Applied Computerized Study
Journals geographic
Article 1, Volume 1, Issue 18, 2018, Pages 217-245
Abstract
The researchers use an analysis of the security element chains solar radiation , the study depends on six weather stations are (Mousl, Kirkuk, Baghdad, Rutba, Nasiriyah, Basra) for the period (1970- 1995). Study relied Box and Jenkins method to analysis of monthly and annual solar radiation of time series. Method has been used to calculate the harmonic periodic annual time series of solar radiation, which ranged between (9-11) years. When application the algorithm. With the nature of the data available, showed the following results : 1. There is a clear trend of lower a mounts of monthly and annual solar radiation for all stations of the study area. 2. Adoption ARIMA model and varying degrees in different lengths of time series and the location of the climatic station to prediction amount of solar radiation for (23) years until the year 2018 showed that there is a clear decline in the amount of solar radiation in the study stations. Recorded amounts of solar radiation negative change rates of actual values and predictive study all stations, which indicates a clear trend towards the dark climate in Iraq.
Keywords
Models Box

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