AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL LAND RATIO IN IRAQ FOR PERIOD 1980-2013 AND FORECASTING IT FOR PERIOD 2014-2024

D. K. Al-Hiyali, A.; T. Al-Wasity, R.

	AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL LAND RATIO IN IRAQ FOR PERIOD 1980-2013 AND FORECASTING IT FOR PERIOD 2014-2024
The Iraqi Journal of Agricultural Science
Article 1, Volume 46, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 64-73
Authors
A. D. K. Al-Hiyali; R. T. Al-Wasity
Abstract
The agricultural activity in Iraq acquires an exceptional importance, representing the activity at which employs about a third of the employee number in Iraq, as well as that the agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) ranks second in financing of GDP after the oil sector. Therefore, promote such activity requires activation of a lot of episodes. The issue of low or high proportion of the agricultural or cultivable lands of the over total in the country, is of great importance due to reflecting clearly the extent of agricultural activity utilization. When this index is higher, it will influence positively the economic situation, and has been reflected in the form of social stability, especially, in rural areas, which include most of the employees in the agricultural sector. The most important factors affecting the ratio of agricultural lands in Iraq were identified during the time period 1980-2013, which can be summarized to exacerbate of desertification phenomenon that comes as a result of climate changes, the low rates of water levels of the Tigris and Euphrates as well as overexploitation and inappropriate dry land systems. The problem of agricultural land salinization, agricultural holdings fragmentation and low employee efficiency in the agricultural sector were appeared to add another burden. These factors have led to a whole negatively impacting the decline in arable land proportion and thus, gain-producing territory, as well as the per capita share of hectares of farmland. The prediction of future index noticed that there is a continuous decline in the index depending on the methodology of B&J, which gave a logical outcome of the case reality. The estimated model (0.1.2), is the model of choice that passed the statistical tests. The study recommended the need to eliminate the causes of the low agricultural land problems, including desertification, salinity, employee efficiency in the agricultural sector as well as follows the scientific methods and efficient use of the resources.
Keywords
Poverty gap; arable land; Forecasting; Box

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