FORECASTING THE QUANTITIES SUPPLIED FROM STATECOMPANY FOR AGRICULTURAL SUPPLIES

G. K. Atrah, S.

	FORECASTING THE QUANTITIES SUPPLIED FROM STATECOMPANY FOR AGRICULTURAL SUPPLIES
IRAQ JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE
Article 1, Volume 18, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 0-0
Author
S. G. K. Atrah
Abstract
The studies and researches that have considered the object of forecast and especially the prospects of Agriculture sector ; despite of being less , They are simple and traditional estimates which do not reach to accurate results due to be free of stable scientific base. The aim of this research is prospecting of Iraqi need to agricultural irrigation systems such as (solid, centre pivot and Drip system) for next time by using the statistical method called (Adaptive-Response-Rate Single Exponential Smoothing) (ARRSES) and mid annual supply of these irrigation systems for formers in all over the country from 1999 till 2011. As it is forecasted of required systems for 2012 that amounted (474) systems ,taking into consideration that the data we reach to this result is recognized with a very high random so this makes the supplied quantities of irrigation system limited to 64, 3266 system and this render the forecasting operation surrounded by many difficulties but , following (ARRSES) method to facilitate the forecasting operation in order not to neglect any data and deal with it objectively and according to time far from year of forecasting. We can forecast of next month, season, half year or year by using (ARRSES) in which this next time appropriate with the nature of dependable interval data . ARRSES is characterized in giving the update notes (values) more probability than the previous ones. The reason is that the update notes have real information of (under process case). As well as, this method can change the variable α sequentially as required i.e. When the variable (α) is not proper with the nature of available data which is called adaptitativeness due to auto change of variable (α) when there is change in data that required to another different value for (α) we recognized that the value of (α) has been changed between two values (0.10) as minimum and (1.00) as maximum.

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