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Securing The Future of Food: Scenario-Based System Dynamics for National Corn Self-Sufficiency in Indonesia | ||
| Anbar Journal of Agricultural Sciences | ||
| Article 6, Volume 24, Issue 2, July 2026, Pages 340-368 PDF (1.72 M) | ||
| Document Type: Research Paper | ||
| DOI: 10.32649/ajas.2025.162617.1740 | ||
| Authors | ||
| N. M. Zuhri* 1; Z. Rozaki2; N. M. S. Ayomi3 | ||
| 1Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang, Semarang City, Indonesia | ||
| 2Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta, Bantul, Indonesia | ||
| 3Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang, Indonesia | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Indonesia’s rising demand for corn for animal feed continues to outstrip domestic production, posing a risk to long-term food security. This study quantifies the supply-demand dynamics of corn in Central Java and identifies feasible policy pathways to achieve provincial self-sufficiency by 2031. A system dynamics model, calibrated using secondary data from 2015 to 2024, was developed in Powersim to capture the interactions among production, harvested area, productivity, consumption, trade flows, and policy interventions. Three scenarios were simulated: a baseline without intervention, a moderate intervention with 1% annual improvements in yield and area, and an aggressive intervention combining 3% yield growth with 5% land expansion. Model validation generated mean absolute percentage errors of less than 2%, confirming strong predictive performance. The results show that the baseline trajectory leads to a widening deficit, while the moderate strategy reduces but does not eliminate reliance on imports. Only the aggressive scenario closes the gap, achieving import elimination by 2027 and generating a surplus by 2031. The study contributes a localized dynamic-system framework that integrates agronomic, demographic, and trade variables to identify the precise turning point when domestic supply overtakes demand. These findings underscore the need for coordinated policies that jointly enhance productivity, manage land expansion, and align import controls with real-time monitoring and control. Embedding dynamic-system tools in policy formulation would enable adaptive, evidence-based planning to safeguard the region’s corn self-sufficiency and strengthen national food security | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Dynamic systems; Corn self-sufficiency; Policy simulation; Regional food security; Agricultural productivity | ||
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