ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND STANDARD OF SOME OF THE VARIABLES AFFECTING THE QUANTITIES REQUIRED (IMPORTED) OFTHERICECROP

Zanzal, H.T.; Salah, A.D.

	ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND STANDARD OF SOME OF THE VARIABLES AFFECTING THE QUANTITIES REQUIRED (IMPORTED) OFTHERICECROP
IRAQ JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE
Article 1, Volume 19, Issue 7, 2014, Pages 0-0
Authors
H.T. Zanzal; A.D. Salah
Abstract
This research aims to study the demand function for rice crop used for the purpose of human consumption in Iraq through the factors affecting the required amount, where it was taking time series for the period of 1990-2008 included factors affecting demand, and analyzed statistically function linear and logarithmic half double logarithmic double show that function half logarithmic had met the criteria for economic theory and proved morale statistical and met the assumptions econometrics, and show that all the values of parameters function moral statistically and the coefficient of adjusted was 0.77%, which means that 77% of the changes in the required quantities of rice (Y) explained by changes in the independent variables included in the model, and 23% of the changes the variable approved attributed interpreted to other factors may be an amount not included in the form or quality within the concept of a random variable. Was then predict the required quantities of rice for the purpose of domestic consumption in Iraq for the period from 2013 until 2025. the results showed the amount coefficient Thiel to predict which amounted to 0.11 and this confirms that the predictive power of the estimated good and reliable, was calculated amount predicted for 2013, which amounted to 1776000 tons of rice, while the in the year 2025 is 6212215 tons, and more factors are population growth and rising per capita income and domestic production because of his inability to bridge the gap occurring between consumption and production, which called for increased demand for rice crop to fill the shortfall by increasing the amount of import and also between Table 1 for the amount predicted, and through predictions can a successful import policy for commodity predicted saves the country from the crises that may contribute to the higher prices caused by increased demand under the influence of tight supply

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